I'm leaning towards the promise of a good supply from the Gulf just announced. Not sure how real that is (so much is all smoke and daggers in the news and politics these days), but it sure sounded good. Add to that everything you mentioned...

http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/science/09/05/oil.discovery.ap/index.html

I'm sure some countries are worried about it. Probably even in discussions behind the scenes in an attempt to slow the process down. In the past some projects never left the ground due to political pressure. Oil has been held over the U.S. as a bargaining chip since we became reliant on it from external sources. If the U.S. needed 50% less oil when production begins, some countries would be in sore shape - especially those whose wealth is based on oil exports...

http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=34449
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2003/03/eife.htm



>I think the more interesting question is WHY is the price of gas down (about a buck less per US gallon here than a month ago)!
>
>Being an oil conspiracy theorist I believe it has to do with too much pressure, with REAL ACTIONS being contemplated, to get away from oil.
>There is too much danger that too much money will be poured into projects to REPLACE oil, so big oil has to get the pressure off.
>
>If we take into account all of the poor poor reasons of the past for raising the price THERE IS NO LOGICAL REASON WHY THE PRICE SHOULD BE LOW NOW.
>- Prudhoe Bay is still at half capacity;
>- Iraq is not producing as needed;
>- Iran's supply is in jeopardy because of various factors;
>- gulf coast refineries are still below pre-Katrina capacities;
>- etc.
>
>
>
>>I'll say. They're down 40-50 cents/gallon around here. And I heard on the radio today that the price of crude oil dropped over a dollar today.
>>
>>Of course, that all goes out the window if we are dumb enough to attack Iran, which the hawks in the administration want to.
>>
>>
>>>Well, gas prices ARE coming down.
>>>
>>>
>>>>It's simple really. Don't wait, just buy a HUMMER NOW. :o)