>What's interesting here is the current rate of change in
>the programming world. I started programming in 1964 in
>Fortran. I would guess that basic programming techniques
>hardly changed for the next twenty years. I got involved
>with micro-computers in 1980 using Basic. Still not much
>change there other than more interaction with the user.
>Later on dBase II and DataFlex were different and better
>because they integrated a relational database. SQL was
>doing the same thing in the mini & mainframe world.

I got involved with micros back in '78 using Basic, Asm, and Forth. I still think back on my "Trash-80" with fond memories. Did a lot of real-time stuff on micros (MODCOMP, PDP11, VAX) with Fortran and Assembler, then got into dBaseII, III, III+, Fox, FoxPro etc, in the early 80's to today on PC's.

>
>Given this picture it is understandable why code written
>in the 70's and 80's would still be in use.
>
>But now O-O programming and the web are really shaking
>things up. A twenty-year forecast for programming techniques
>made in 1970 would have been generally correct in 1990. I
>would shrink from making any forecasts for programming in
>the year 2020!
>
>Peter

I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess about how long a piece of code may last even by 2005! At its current shrinking rate of obsolesence (sp?), it may only be needed to last, oh say, 5-10 days! Then again, we may not need to WRITE code, only THINK of it. Imagine the FP commands then:
SET TELEPATHY ON
etc.
I know I'd need SET STUPID OFF. ;)

Me: Delete MyMostImportantStuff.
Computer: Are you sure?
Me: Yes.
Computer: Are you really, really sure?
Me: Yes!
Computer: Files MyMostImportantStuff deleted.
Me: Wait...damn!

Do what I mean, not what I say... whoops, that's what I tell my kids now! If computers don't listen any better than they do, we're all in trouble!