Jos,

I think I agree with your analysis. Only for 2b I would differtiate the choices you can make. All depends in what category you are, in what's called (Business) diffusion : Innovator, EarlyAdopter, Early majority, Late majority or Laggards.
You choose for the right side, I prefer the left ... but there is no better position (except for the extremes maybe), everyone should decide for his own and much depends on personality, taste and other (very) subjective criteria...

I'm in position (1), but even if I was in 2b my choice would be the same ...