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11/05/2007 15:11:16
 
 
À
11/05/2007 14:56:06
Information générale
Forum:
Politics
Catégorie:
Autre
Divers
Thread ID:
01224317
Message ID:
01224788
Vues:
10
>SNIP
>>
>>Nobody complained when OPEC influenced price rise by $20 and gas price going by couple cents.
>>I feel that some information is required here. US domestic gasoline market stopped to be independent long time ago, about 70s when construction of new refineries was effectively banned. Since then, USA imports increasing amount of gasoline from foreign countries, so currency fluctuations (e.g. between USD and Euro) affect gas price on daily basis.
>>The major thing that is 'not clear' to me is the following. There are too many people with rather preliminary knowledge of oil or any other commodity markets, but with extremely firm knowledge about collusion and gauging. Imho, it says more about personal attitudes or social views than about actual situation in particular industry.
>
>I believe that you are incorrect, Ed, in attributing the curret price of gasoline "about the 70s when construction of new refineries was effectively banned.
>
>It was after the 70s that big oil found the magic formula - buy other oil companies and shut down refineries on the basis of excess capacity. It is critical to note that they were fuly aware - in fact counted on - the fact that refinery construction was an unwelcomed activity in most communities.
>With less refining capacity than requird to meet peak demand an artificial shortage is created and capitalism rushes in to save the day.
>
>Enron did exactly similarly when they manufactured the California electricity crisis. Except they were too sloppy and too greedy and ultimately got caught. In the case of Enron there was collusion suspected too but it was very difficult to prove at the time.
>
>Business has no morals. Management's only obligaion is the growth of shareholder value. With these operating guidelines it is very clear to most of us that the default position should be to suspect foul play!
>
>Indirectly related - why was ***any*** company importing "wheat gluten" from China?????? Since when did China have excess wheat to sell, and since when could China produce wheat for less that most any other modern western country?????

Firstly, I would like to answer the part specifically related to the issue. I pointed that significant amount of gasoline are currently imported to explain that it creates direct link between currency fluctuations and gas price. For example, if gas is produced in Spain and then transported to US, and price in Euro is the same, it may still change if USD/Euro rates change. Next step would be to look at last year USD/Euro chart and make simple logical adjustment.
In regard to refineries, it is very difficult to debate against conspiracy arguments (a-la big oil plotted to close refineries and they did it), so I can just give few facts. There were no refineries built in USA for last 30 years. In this period US Congress adopted numerous acts stiffening environmental standards in many cases specifically for this particular industry. Granted, every act contained a waiver allowing existing refineries to continue business largely undisturbed (jobs are always important). It created situation when new refinery would be immediately put in huge disadvantage competing against existing ones.
In regard to morals. I was engaged in business for rather long time and I get used to consider myself as relatively honest. Imo, it would be unfair for me to consider other businesses inherently dishonest while reserving better definition for myself.
Finally, I could talk about China for so long time that it would be too much for this message.
Edward Pikman
Independent Consultant
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