>Now, the lottery thing isn't actually that simple. 22.5M x 22.5M would actually be the chance of winning both of two particular drawings rather than the lifetime chance of winning twice. That's somewhat higher, since each time you play, you have the same chance, but with the odds so small, the repeat plays don't count for much.
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>It's that last part that I zeroed in on. "...the repeat plays don't count for much." They count for exactly the same 'much' that any other play does. That was my original point. And I still say if the odds are 15,000,000 to 1 against winning, then if you win, the odds remain 15,000,000 to 1 against winning again.

No, what I meant was that given exactly two lottery drawings, where the odds of winning one are 22.5M to one, the odds of winning both are (22.5M x 22.5M) to one. But in a lifetime, there are a lot more drawings than that. The odds of winning any one are so small, that even playing time after time after time, your odds are still tiny.

Specifically, given two drawings at those odds, with a single ticket in each, your odds of winning are 2 in 22.5M, which in the real world, isn't a whole lot better than 1 in 22.5M. (Yeah, I know it's twice as much, but it's still a teeny-tiny number.)

So the point I was making was that the odds are winning twice when you play everytime are higher than 1 in (22.5M x 22.5M), but not enough higher to wipe out the effects of squaring 22.5M.

Sorry for using shorthand and assuming people would understand what I meant.


>My sister has a theory that I'm sure many people believe. When she plays the lottery, she increases her odds of winning by not playing numbers that have basically "no chance" of coming up. For example, she won't play 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 since (in her logic) that has less of a chance of coming up than say 2, 15, 17, 22, 34, 41. She actually believes this. So she cuts out runs of numbers and other 'obviously impossible series', thus 'increasing her odds' dramatically.
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>The mind boggles.

Yes, it does, but so many people are innumerate, that it doesn't really surprise. After all, you have to be fairly innumerate to play regularly.

Tamar