Ohhhhhh I hate to write this, but right now I see New Orleans going the distance. If Carolina can stay away from too many injuries they may get a wildcard, but they don't look anywhere near as good as New Orleans does right now, especially without Keyshawn Johnson. Then there is also Jeff Garcia/Tampa Bay... watch out. Saints have plenty of weapons, but their defense (especially their secondary) is horrible. I know they played the defending champs on Thursday, but the Colt receivers had it WAY too easy against the Saint secondary.
I've read that many people think that Tampa will do a "worst to first" this year. I think Garcia is a good QB, but there's no way he'll pull off another winning streak this year. Tampa just doesn't have the players. Sure, they might go 8-8, but not much better.
I'm picking Carolina on the basis that every even numbered season they struggle, and every odd-numbered season they win a division. ;)