It's starting to look like Hillary is going to have to make a major gaffe not to win. And she seems pretty good at locking down into gaffe-proof mode. I think she did learn that from the health care reform fiasco.

Of course, there is over a year until the election and a lot can happen. The primaries will be over before we know it but there will still be the general election. One thing we may see is a significant gap between what people tell pollsters and how they actually vote. I bet a lot of people don't want to say they wouldn't vote for a woman or a minority, but in fact they won't.


>Well, things are sure to change when Hilary or Obama become President (it will be one of them unless something scares the populace between now and the election).
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>>>As a separate discussion completely, I would indeed defend the Iraq invasion. We went to Iraq, and I, along with the majority of Americans, listened to the intelligence information presented and believed Iraq to be a direct threat to the U.S. We didn't go to Iraq based on what we know now, we went based on what we thought we knew then. I am still waiting for whoever is truly responsible for misleading the leaders of this country and the American people with false (intentional? not truly known or at least not proven yet) intelligence.
>>
>>"Intentional" in this context can never be proven. Deception artists involved in cooking up of Iraq war back then knew that very well.
>>Ok, CIA chief will acknowledge he was wrong then resign and that is it, everybody else is *clean*. CIA chief is yesterday news and so is WMD all together.
>>
>>My problem with this way of reasoning in general is that I see it basically as denial of collective responsability which under preassured circumastances lead to defacto abolition of individual responsability.
>>Complete absence of substantial reaction to WMD 'caca' once it became known
>>was really shocking to me. They got away basically by saying 'Uuups... It was an accident!' and 'But so what, Saddam was bad gay anyway!'
>>
>>Whereas heads should have been rolling all the way up, and in all directions. That would have been only normal order of events for trully democratic country that was ready to impeach previous president for zilli-fraction of zilligram of bad doing comparing to this.
>>Hello! Here we are talking about destroyed country, 6-7hundred thousand of dead, 2 million refugees, unmeasurable damages etc.
>>
>>> Now, we have a responsibility to the Iraqi people to help them become a >secure and safe democracy because we created the mess there and cannot >leave them until they ask us to. Our country is responsible for the mess.
>>
>>Up to year back or so, I would even agree with this. Even now, provided that
>>there is even slow progress and results twds some sustainable solution.
>>Now, are the results really substantial, or prolonged presence is creating even more mess/damage?
>>Is there guarantee of success on a long run ? Are the ordinary Iraqee people really benefiting from this in any way ? Do they really aprove US presence there ? (Pools?) Do they perceive US troops and BlackWater style 'contractors' as liberators/donors or they consider them as enemies/occupiers?
>>
>>I no longer believe that the main reason why US is staying there is because of some real sense of responsability (that you & I could *agree* uppon) or genuine intention to rebuild/help Iraqee people/country/democracy etc.
>>(You did cast doubt on intentions before?)
>>
>>Hence one example;
>>UK is withdrawing from Basra leaving only 2500 personnel behind.
>>Having much less deadweight on their feet, they claimed victory and left it basically to dominating Shia fraction(s) who will naturally at first claim victory as well, then start process of power struggle/consolidation.
>>Then, they will eventually (as soon as US troops are gonne as well) rich out to surrounding muslim brotherhood (Iran,Syria) for friendship/help keeping security there. On a long run this would create one 'Big Happy Family'
>>there with high desire to play *domino* with the rest of the region...
>>
>>These kind of 'apples' US gov. cannot so easily swallow. That is why they are still there figting battle that was already lost long time ago.
>>
>>For as long as there is no effective solution for 'apples' problem, you will be hearing mantra about responsability, progress achieved, steady road to sustainable democracy and so on, while troops will be there indefenetely.
>>(Sustainable democracy will simply never happen there!)
>>
>>Worse of all, people will believe as well. Whom? The same 'Crew' who started it all back then based on a flat lie. Uuups sorry, - unreliable intelligence source/report.
>>
>>Peace.