Iowa and New Hampshire get way more attention than they deserve simply because they are first. As small, rural states they are not representative at all of the country as a whole. But nobody wants to be slow out of the gate. Not even Slow Fred.


>I just never got the Iowa and New Hampshire thing. National poll not surprising. The Republicans for whom abortion is *the* issue are looking for anybody but Rudy, just like the extreme left would like to find somebody with Kucinich's views who isn't, well, Kucinich <s> McCain has burned too many bridges over the years. I really think come convention time there is going to be heavy wave of pragmatism. My only fear is they will saddle him with a veep like JFK got LBJ and they'll kill each other before the election.
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>I hope Rudy already has Dick Morris on retainer.
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>Dems are going with HRC/Obama. He's winning the audition over Edwards who won't get a second bite of that apple. I guess she could take Richardson if she wants to really placate the moveoners and try to eat latino votes ( dems have been taking black america for granted for so long it is going to be a rude awakening one day when the Connerly, Sowell, Steele folks start flexing their political and economic clout. )
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>If I were a Dem dirty tricks guy I'd be looking for a way to bribe Roger Goodell to retiring and getting Condi offered the NFL commissioner job in 2009 <g> ( actually, she might settle for director of player personnel for the Browns )
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>The latest Iowa polls is interesting:
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>>http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/10/08/post_123.html
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>>Totally contradicts the Gallop poll:
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>>http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08rep.htm
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>>>>How do you see Gulianni winning. All the press I've read about him is extremely negative. Like bush only worse. Although I've not understood the worse part. But when you read his style, if you didn't read the heading first, you'd think you were reading an article about bush.
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>>>>I've read one article explaining why Gulianni's style is winning over those in the Mid-West, but I didn't really understand it.
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>>>Perry, from a lot of other stuff you've written I would tend to think your reading wouldn't include a lot of sources that would like Guiliani <g>
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>>>Ok, first I am not sure Guiliani can win. But I am very sure the other GOP candidates can't ( at least not with my vote ) Romney may be an accomplished person and I might vote for the guy who is Gov of Mass but not for the guy who is doing what he thinks you have to do to win the GOP nomination. And there is the Mormon thing, which will hurt him with the evangelicals and later with the secularists. ( sometimes I think the country would be better off with no primaries but just a general election playoff - it does not bring out the best in either party as it gives the loonies too much power ) Everybody else too far to the right on social issues. Thompson doesn't want it bad enough and I don't think will play well in a long race.
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>>>My only issue with the Dems is national security. I can live with social experimentation - especially when things like health care so obviously need attention. Rudy's national security team includes Podhoretz, Danial Pipes and Martin Kramer and I think that is important in that the next Presidential term is going to have to have a pretty firm handle on exactly where the threats are and to understand they are very real. I think HRC understands that, fortunately, more than her base, but I'm afraid she would be muscled into making appointments that would be a lot more wobbly ( remember Jimmy Carter made Stansfield Turner DCI and Clinton appointed Deutch. )
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>>>Can Rudy win? i've no idea, but I know if the Dems run a hillary/barack ticket the counterpunch is rudy/condi. Would probably be a good election for the country. If Condi had a husband and two kids it would probably help a lot, but I don't think there is time for that before the election <s> Would be pretty good for the country, though to have a national election that was a little more 'diverse' ( god I hate that word ) than what we're used to.
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>>>I think the real thing to watch is HRC's negatives. They are extraordinarily high and the question is which way does that move when she gets on the campaign trail nationally. And her nomination will be a great fund-raiser for GOP that might otherwise be less than enthusiastic about non-born-again Rudy.
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>>>If I were the GOP dirty tricks guy I'd be trolling trailer parks all over America looking for guided-bimbo-missiles to shoot at Bill during the campaign <s>
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>>>>>>It's starting to look like Hillary is going to have to make a major gaffe not to win. And she seems pretty good at locking down into gaffe-proof mode. I think she did learn that from the health care reform fiasco.
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>>>>>>Of course, there is over a year until the election and a lot can happen. The primaries will be over before we know it but there will still be the general election. One thing we may see is a significant gap between what people tell pollsters and how they actually vote. I bet a lot of people don't want to say they wouldn't vote for a woman or a minority, but in fact they won't.
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>>>>>I like Tina Fey's line in her Liz Lemon confessions that “There is an 80 percent chance I'll tell all my friends I’m voting for Barack Obama, but I will secretly vote for John McCain.” <s>