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Here's a good way to end this one...
Message
De
07/12/2007 09:54:51
 
 
À
06/12/2007 18:41:16
Information générale
Forum:
News
Catégorie:
Sports
Divers
Thread ID:
01273201
Message ID:
01273941
Vues:
12
>You are unbelievably fortunate. I have had my home broken into numerous times and each time I lived in a different state, let alone a different neighborhood.
>
>

Okay, here are some statistics from the FBI (http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/offenses/property_crime/burglary.html). In 2005, there were 2,154,126 burglaries reported. Of those, 65.8% were "residential structures," which I'll take to homes. That's 1,417,415. 62.4% of those took place between 6 AM and 6 PM, which to me indicates that the burglars were looking for empty homes. So let's take the rest, where we can assume the burglars expected people to be home and were prepared for that. (That's probably an overestimate, since I'll guess burglars look for houses that show signs of being empty, but we'll live with that.) That's 532,948 burglaries in one year where the burglar might have expected to find people at home.

According to a Census Bureau document I found, the Census Bureau projected that in 2005, there would be about 108,000,000 households in the us.

If I'm doing the math right, that's less than 1/2 of 1 percent who'd be burglarized when they might reasonably be home. If burglaries were evenly distributed across the population, I could therefore reasonably expect to be burglarized that way once in 200 years. But of course, they're not. Some neighborhoods have much higher rates for all kinds of crime.

So, no, I don't think I've been lucky. I think you've been unlucky or lived in places where crime was particularly bad.

Tamar
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