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Any bets on the DOW today ?
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19/03/2008 12:49:11
 
 
À
19/03/2008 11:18:29
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Forum:
Finances
Catégorie:
Marchés boursiers
Divers
Thread ID:
01302623
Message ID:
01303464
Vues:
24
Sorry, meant more.

>Why fewer? If yuan could be pegged to euro exclusively then it would rise against dollar faster than now and accordingly it would buy more dollars.
>On the other hand, major economic force, as you call China, is too dependent on US consumer to lose faith in dollar. If yuan could go up against dollar in too dramatic fashion then, it might happen, that Taiwanese and Korean economic forces could become again more competitive in US-based hardware and department stores.
>
>>The point is that if the yuan was pegged to the euro instead of the dollar, the yuan would also buy fewer dollars today, like the euro. This of course would make many things more expensive in the US. But many economists believe the more important factor would be that it would show a major economic force loosing faith in the dollar.
>>
>>>Sure, but this is Chinese policy to make currency changes as little as possible. I don't think that exchange rate between yuan and euro changed much either.
>>>
>>>>I believe the basket was created so they could lessen the heat put on them by the US govt. But the dollar is still the major currency in the basket. The exchange rate between the dollar and yuan has changed very little in the last several yrs. Even since they created the basket.
>>>>
>>>>>AFAIK, yuan is not linked to the dollar anymore. It is linked to the basket of major currencies.
>>>>>
>>>>>>I've read several articles that point out that the potentially biggest shoe that could drop would be for the Chinese to change from pegging the Yuan to the dollar to pegging it to the Euro. It would basically be the final straw showing the lack of faith in the dollar in international markets.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>We will not officially know when the recession started (by technical definitions) until many months after it occurred, MANY smart people believe we are already in one. You obviously have an understanding of the markets and are doing due diligence in your stock selection, so you are likely to do OK, but MOST investors don't have a clue, and this type of market is dangerous for them. As for debasing the currency, not the best thing to hope for, but that is where they are taking it regardless.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Firstly, recession is not here (yet?).
>>>>>>>>In regard to stock selection, P/E ratio should not be used as a primary factor in turbulent times. It should be replaced with Debt-to-Equity (low debt, to be simple) and Price-to-Book ratios. It ensures that business is durable and you buy it cheap. Low US dollar is the key ingredient indicating that US-based manufacturing stocks is the way to go, because every day of low dollar greatly increases their competitiveness on both international and domestic markets.
>>>>>>>>In regard to customers: our big-heart government (regardless to party affiliation) will take care that rank-in-file customers will have enough paper to go shopping. It is a very easy and well-known technology, I mean printing.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>I agree there is value in individual well selected stocks, but you need to consider as we go into (are in) recession that multiples will contract as earnings decrease making the current P/E a less reliable indicator. The fact that many corporations are light on debt with strong balance sheets is one of the few things this economy has going for it, but as consumers pull back with the loss of wealth effect (housing & Stocks) and increasing costs (gas, food, borrowing) the corporations won't have enough customers to buy their products.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Your posts remind me of a response I got a couple of months ago from Chris McCandless saying there was absolutely no reason to fear a recession, LOL

(On an infant's shirt): Already smarter than Bush
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