>>>NO upspike on an interest drop would be very low probability<g>. But the speed and amount of dropping (slashing 4.5 to 2.25 in the first quarter) is IMHO not a sign that the crisis is nearly over. It smells more "desperation" than like "fine tuning", both from the step sizes and frequency.
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>>I think it more reflects Bernanke individuality. In regard to crisis, I did not say that it is over. My point was that, no matter what crisis is on, investors should keep cool heads.
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>Keeping a cool head is even more important, as the both chances to loose and to gain a lot are greater in interesting times. While some would argue that it is safer to run in circles screaming and shouting than to catch a falling knife<g>.
>But I am sure I have not thought all ramifications through - but the most important thing is the fall of the $ from first place.
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>my 0.02
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>thomas

US dollar drop was quite predictable and the investment medicine (gold) was known too. The more difficult problem that confronts me now, is to figure out when dollar will change direction and start rising.