>>IOW, if the Radicals win, I'll just be irritated, but won't be surprised.
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>Thank you for the mini history lesson and insider's perspective. Very interesting.
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>If I can ask a follow-up question -- why do you think there has been so much strife in that area? Is it ethnic, geographic, something else, a mix? I know Yugoslavia was sort of an invented alliance of different groups after WW II, and that enmity between Serbs and Croats goes way back, but that's about it.

It's first and foremost geographic. Several important lines go that way. First, the dividing line between the Roman empires - which then led to the schism inside Christianity. That line zig-zags through ex-Yu lands. Generally, the Catholic side is Slovenia and Croatia, Orthodox side Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia, while the duty-free shop is all over Bosnia and (let's not forget) Herzegovina. Then there's the dividing line between the Muslim influences (Ottoman leftovers), which used to be Bosnia, Serbia and to the southeast of it, but... the Serb refugees from (mostly) Kosovo got the military frontier land from Maria Theresia (or some other Austro-Hungarian monarch) all along the border (which is why there was such a problem with Croatia later - it had about 30% of Serbs in it), to be the defenders of Christianity.

Then there's the imperial jaddah, aka road, built by Roman emperors, which pretty much connects Central Europe - Vienna, Budapest, North Italy - with Athens and Constantinople - goes smack down mid-Serbia up the valley of Morava and through Macedonia, Vardar valley. It's said to be the house on the main road - at all times it was under the eye of great powers, who wanted to either have their hand on it, or to ensure the safe passage. First couple of crusades were actually guests of King Milutin or some of the other guys of the Mrnjavčević (*) dinasty.

Which brings us to the base cause of all the crapfest that goes on there for the last few millennia: it's a crossroad, and an important one. In Roman times, that's the northern border of the empire - Belgrade is Singidunum, a border outpost of Traianus and a dozen others before and after him. Various so-called "barbarians" visit the borders; in VI century the first Slavic migrations come, Huns right behind them, mixing with Celts et al. By XIV century there are solid states, trade goes on, crusades pass, and the schism isn't that deep yet. I think the next couple of centuries is really important - the Ottomans come and any local development stops; Croatia and Karantania (i.e. Slovenia) have accepted the Austro-Hungarian rule early on, in XI century or so; the only independent Slavic state for a few centuries is the Dubrovnik Republic and maybe pieces of Montenegro by the coast, something you can today drive around in a day.

By the time Ottomans are packing to leave, there's the Austria, who wants to spread south. There's Vatican, who wants to spread east and generally can't stand that between Rome and the Orthodox land there's just a little sea and a few kilometers of limestone. Then there's Russia, who is more or less permanently at war against the Ottomans and would love to have allies at the gates of the warm seas (their eternal dream). Then there's the UK, a spice in every chowder - Crimean war, helping the Greek in their rebellion against the Ottomans (and somehow forgetting everybody else - Serbia, Bulgaria...). This goes on and on - just the first 18 years of XX century would give you the proper definition of "balkanization": everyone is minding your business, alliances are shifting all the time, because this or other powerful protector (or, rather, protection seller) has promised its protege a little something, just win this war and you'll get... your neighbor's land, which you'll then claim to be eternally yours and provide war and merriment in centuries to come.

Then there's the famous meeting in Yalta, where Yugoslavia was split in half - west goes to be UK's sphere of influence, east goes to Stalin. Same religious lines, though. Tito was smart enough to tell them they were summing the bill without the bartender, and pronounced the kingdom they were splitting nonexistent, and announced a republic in its stead.

I don't exactly know who was aiding whom in the nineteen nineties, but knowing the people I grew up with, until then I could have sworn nobody wanted a war and that we were, in 90% majority, in love with our country. But proper enticement for the remaining 10% was provided (all of a sudden there appeared to be a source of weapons for Croatia in Hungary - huh, long gone love, once masters, now your neighborly arms dealers...).

It's not Serbs vs Croats per se. I've had good friends all over Croatia. Every rock band from Zagreb knew they had to make a big concert in Belgrade or bust; every rock band from Belgrade knew they can't possibly survive if they don't make a summer tour of Dalmatia and crown it with a big gig in Zagreb.

But there's a sufficient number of morons who believed what their priests were saying. Christian fundamentalists of the worst kind, both. Catholic church in Croatia has helped a big number of SS and Ustashe to escape to South America and then Franco's Spain; the official policy of "convert a third, expel a third, kill a third" (re Serbs and conversion into Catholicism) was sanctioned and many priests were with the units who were executing it, blessing the troops. Likewise, many Orthodox priests were with the Chetnik units (who were supposedly the remainder of the regular army), and likewise gave their blessing to their part of brotherly slaughter. (Now I may be cursed from back home, because Chetniks are rehabilitated, they weren't the guys with knives - wake me up when the history settles). Ah and yes, let's not forget Handžar SS, a division made of Bosnian Muslims, who were generally sent to Soviet front when they weren't operating locally.

You can see that a lot of my resentment against organized religions comes from seeing what they have done, historically, with my country (whichever country it is now ;), and even more against big powers meddling in affairs of other countries, and then pretending that balkanization is some local sport, where they are just helpless spectators. That's outright arrogant, and while it may be forgiven, can't easily be forgotten.

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(*) "mrnjau" is Serbian for "meouw"... and that's our first dynasty. Go figure.