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Oil prices
Message
From
11/06/2008 12:09:53
 
 
To
11/06/2008 09:05:31
General information
Forum:
Politics
Category:
Other
Title:
Miscellaneous
Thread ID:
01322665
Message ID:
01323143
Views:
25
A couple things from the article:
-"It is the IEA's most candid admission to date that oil supply is struggling to catch up with Asian demand"
-"He said: "Competition for resources and their use is growing.""
-"However, the agency warned that so far, there were "very few signs of slowing demand in non-OECD countries where economic growth is far more significant than price in determining demand"."
-"The cut in the IEA's forecast for oil demand growth was overshadowed by a larger cut in forecast supplies."
-"The non-Opec supply growth forecast for 2008 is now below the growth achieved by the group both in 2007 and 2006, in spite of significantly higher oil prices."
-"The agency also warned that the imbalance between demand and supply forced a counter-seasonal drop in rich countries' oil inventories in April. It estimates that stocks fell in April by 8.1m barrels, compared with a traditional increase in April of about 30m barrels."

The most recent forecast I've seen is that the US demand will be down by 2.5% this year. While significant for the US it is not enough to offset the rising world demand.

One other thing :
"Mr Miller agreed with the IEA's assessment, saying that speculators were not "a determining influence"."
This is crap. Anyone with a beginners book on technical analysis can look at the oil charts and understand the bull run. It too will end.

>Recently the demand level has gone way down here (a first) as a result of the higher prices (according to experts and media sources) and we have been preached to for years that the only way to bring oil prices down is to decrease our demand yet the prices are still expected to double during the next year. I suspect demand has gone way down around the world as well as a reflection of the high prices.
>
>
>>>SNIP
>>>>Where outside of the US is it prohibited from increasing supply?
>>>>
>>>>Has demand grown 40% this year?
>>>
>>>So much for supply and demand:
>>>
>>>As expected, the IEA cut slightly its forecast for annual oil demand growth, but surprised the market with a deep reduction in its forecast for supply growth from non-Opec nations, leaving the world more dependent on the producers' cartel.
>>>
>>>http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=577986
>>
>>Where do you see suplly and demand rules broken ? Base your assumption on limieted resources
>>and the current price is actually LOW if seen as percentage of alternate energy replacement.
>>So "hoarding" comes into play (price increases > tenfold of usual price are often seen after
>>after natural disasters) as the suppliers realize that they are selling a non-replaceble resource
>>clearly under value.
Wine is sunlight, held together by water - Galileo Galilei
Un jour sans vin est comme un jour sans soleil - Louis Pasteur
Water separates the people of the world; wine unites them - anonymous
Wine is the most civilized thing in the world - Ernest Hemingway
Wine makes daily living easier, less hurried, with fewer tensions and more tolerance - Benjamin Franklin
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