>>>>http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/
>>>>
>>>>The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.
>>>>
>>>>The title should be 'USA TODAY/Gallup Poll'
>>>
>>>I heard this last night. What I just found, thanks to your link, is that "likely voters" isn't people who say they plan to vote, but a more complicated measure. I suspect that in this election, it will turn out to be less meaningful than usual, as many people how are not generally likely to vote have been engaged this year.
>>>
>>>Tamar
>>
>>It will be nice if we see the same turnout in the election that we saw in the primary... Unprecedented number of people voting for a change, regardless of which candidate wins the election.
>
>Likely voters is the only pool that should be used for polling.

But the question is how you measure likely voters. It the pollsters are using the same formulas they've used in the past, they may get it very wrong this time because so many are newly engaged.

Tamar