>>>Say the US were to win 100 medals at the Summer Games. Statistically speaking, how many medals would Canada be expected to win?
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>>Statistically speaking as in based on a population ratio? It seems like a meaningless calculation if you don't include all the other factors. For sure Canada does a lot better in the Winter Olympics than the Summer ones.
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>While the difference in population must have an effect I'm pretty sure you can't use the direct ratio (about 10:1).
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>Olympic/elite athletes are at the extreme tail end of the bell curve. A larger population has a tail that is both larger above any given level of performance, and that extends farther, than that of a smaller population. Based strictly on that I'd expect Canada's haul to be considerably less than 1/10 of the US's.
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>You're right, there are tons of other factors too. Just to name a few:
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>- Strong state support for athletics (think Australia)
>- Cultural traditions and/or well-established private sports organizations (the US is a pretty good example of this)
>- Long history of low childhood poverty and good childhood/developmental nutrition (Scandinavian countries, Holland)
>- Comprehensive screening of children/young adults for athletic abilities. If China and India could boost childhood nutrition and fully screen their populations there's little doubt they could absolutely dominate many sports

China tries to identify gifted athletes from what is to me a shockingly young age. Like 3. There was a piece during the coverage of women's gymnastics last night showing them doing flexibility tests on very young girls, the most promising of whom are put into a training program right away. You may have heard that there is some question about whether all the female Chinese Olympic gymnasts are the minimum age of 16. (As proof, the Chinese presented the girls' passports showing that they are -- I'm not joking). One in particular looks about 12 or 13.

China is always strong in gymnastics, men's and women's both, and this year is no exception. Also diving. Where they have made the most noticeable gains is in non-traditional sports (for them) such as swimming and track. The biggest sports star in China is a hurdler who will be defending his Olympic gold medal.

BTW, here is one of those funny little coincidences. After posting in this thread this morning I went out to lunch and to run some errands. In a parking lot I noticed the car next to me had Illinois vanity plates saying "SKI BC". Cue "Twilight Zone" theme song....