I can't speak to Ohio, but Florida is an absolute given for McCain. There's a lot of Democrats here but not many stupid, radical ones. Blue Dogs and a crapload of veterans as well.

>The results of nationwide polls is interesting, but the focus should really be on state polls. Looking at the electoral map, it's difficult to see a McCain victory unless he takes both Ohio and Florida. If Obama takes either of those, he wins.
>
>>As I (ahem) predicted, the less politically active and more moderate Americans are being drawn into the fray and they almost always gravitate towards the least radical candidate.
>>
>>http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx
>>
>>Of course, it's early yet.