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Five Years of Downturn
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Information générale
Forum:
Finances
Catégorie:
Marchés boursiers
Divers
Thread ID:
01353031
Message ID:
01353095
Vues:
20
>>It is insane advice. If I know the market will tank for the next 5 years I need to sell out now (whether I need the cash now or not) and find another investment vehicle for my funds. Secondly, it is unfounded advice because it implies that the person giving the advice knows the future of the next 5 years.
>>
>>If the market tanks for the next 5 years there will be better investment options than just sitting it out, not least of which would be that anyone with the ability to know the next 5 years must also, presumable, be able to call the bottom of the market during that time and hence time their re-entry into the market at the most opportune time. It is just sensational journalism.
>
>It is gambling advice just like advice in horseracing, football betting, lottory picks, etc. Always has been.

It is worse than a lottery pick because a person who is in a position of influence (TV personality) is pretending to know the future of the stock market over the next 5 years and advising people on that prediction. The logic is simple:

1) The 5 year forecast is right: If the forecast is right then the advice is wrong. You should take your money out now and find better things to do with it during the next 5 years.

2) The 5 year forecast is wrong: If the forecast is wrong then why would advice based on it be any better?
In the End, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends - Martin Luther King, Jr.
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