One thing that really bothers me about predictions of how our economy is going to fare over the next couple of years is that very, very few of these people making predictions have been accurate in the last year.

Were they telling us a year ago, or even 6 months ago, that things were going to be this bad? If not, why should we believe what they are telling us now?

I think there is a fundamental psychological need in human beings to believe what people predict about the future, whether it's the economy, sports, etc. To one degree or another, we seem susceptible to believing people who claim some ability to predict future events, despite having no track record of success.


>No, not even a recession according to The National Bureau of Economic Research:
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>http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-11-03-economy-depression-recession_N.htm
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>Compared to the Great Depression:
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>Our economic woes dwindle in comparison. As of the end of June, the latest data available, the nation's gross domestic product was still growing at a respectable 2.8% rate. In the third quarter, it fell at an annual 0.3% rate. Unemployment in September was 6.1%. "We're a long way from the D-word," says David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's. "It's a recession."
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>And, in fact, it's not even officially a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end, has yet to declare the end of the most recent economic recovery. Even the shorthand version of recession — two consecutive quarters of shrinking gross domestic product — hasn't happened yet.
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>Not in a recession? Could've fooled me...
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>And why did the Great Depression last so long? According to these guys, it was all the fault of FDR:
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>http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409.aspx