>>>The mistake in this point is the degree to which random events, utterly beyond your control, actually influence your life - it is not just up to you at all. The role of randomness is far greater than we tend to realize (or want to admit). Being smart and having a willingness to work hard are only pre-requisites for success in life, without them you will almost certainly be on the wrong track. But being clever and willingly to work play only a (perhaps relatively small) part in the final outcome. Hence the moral of the story is be smart and be prepared to work hard and then hope for the best.
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>>Precisely! Author Malcolm Gladwell refers to how much randomness is a factor in outcome (specifically, personal success) in his recent "Outliers". Read it, luv it. I heard an interview in which he remarked that the random-factor-in-persons-lives-regardless-of-person's-actions receives a rather "so what?" reaction in some places (he's Canadian) and is argumentatively resisted in others, primarily in the US. We gotta Horatio Alger myth goin' ;-)
>
>I guess Mickiko Kukatani, the New York Times's top book crttic, must be one of those argumentative resisters. She flayed "Outliers" alive, viewing it as anecdotal rather than proving any large scale theme.

for lurkers:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/18/books/18kaku.html

don't miss:

http://limitedinc.blogspot.com/2008/11/my-review-of-outliers.html

and just to be fair, an opposing view by NYT's David Leonhardt:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/30/books/review/Leonhardt-t.html?_r=1&em