>http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm

I especially like this quote:

"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

That is the problem with trying to model natural, dynamic processes. It is very difficult to model chaos. I loved modelling because of the tweaking/tuning possibilities, but in the end, they are only models, not reality.