I expect UNC to lose though

Well, then you won't be shocked then. :)

As I type, Duke is up by 11 with a minute to go - so I'm putting this one in the books.

Hopefully you're convinced that Duke is a top 10 team. I don't like Duke, but their guard play is very good.

Barring a complete run through the ACC tourney, UNC is NIT-bound. Sorry. :(