>>When the Obama administration put forth the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the hope was that the $700 billion stimulus to the economy would halt the economic decline and temper the deterioration in labor markets. In this column we bring you up to date on the progress of the economic recovery.
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>>The news in the numbers is often difficult to discern. It is not helped by the desire of the administration and its critics to put a particular spin on the success or failure of various policies. In a previous column we commented on the early claims of success for the stimulus package. Those claims have since been muted by the actual performance of the economy, and we hear relatively less about the number of jobs that have been saved.
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>>The data are also confusing because they tell two different stories--or as Nouriel Roubini has described it, a tale of two different economies. Our primary goal here is to present the data in a way that best illustrates what is going on in the economy. This is important because it makes clear that this economic downturn is not your garden-variety recession. It is indeed the "Great Recession," and it is far from over.
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>>http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/02/jobless-recovery-unemployment-economy-opinions-columnists-thomas-f-cooley-peter-rupert.html?boxes=opinionschannellighttop
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>Don't you think the economy is in a lot better shape than it was in the fall of 2008? It's not all the way back yet, but it's better than it was. Once the unemployment rate drops back down we will be fine.

No I do not. We sit on the "precipice" ;) of an outright disaster. There are a sequence of economic events in motion which will push us over the edge by year's end. Unless there are some DRAMATIC changes, I see no way to avoid the 2nd leg down.

>The one thing that may never completely recover is the housing market. That was an insane market, a combination of unwise investors and unwise lenders. It was a house of cards, and sure enough it toppled.

Housing is cyclical, it will come back, but not until we've been in actual economic recovery for a couple years. In other words, while housing has for the most part bottomed, it's not coming back for years.