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The Death of the Triple-A Sovereign
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De
01/05/2010 11:25:08
 
 
À
01/05/2010 06:45:35
Information générale
Forum:
Finances
Catégorie:
Hypothèques
Divers
Thread ID:
01462250
Message ID:
01462648
Vues:
39
>>
>>It becomes rather confusing when reading different reports and the terms they use really mean. According to Trichet in January, Greece is only 2.5-3% of the EU's GDP while California is 12% of the U.S. GDP. In fact, total EU budget deficits only comprise roughly 7% while the U.S. is closer 12%
>>
>>http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=16490
>>
>>However, according to the Economist in February, last year Greece’s budget deficit reached 12.7% of GDP. And as Marco Annunziata of UniCredit, an Italian bank, points out, California’s debt amounts to less than 1% of America’s GDP. Greek debt comes to 2% of the euro zone’s GDP.
>>
>>http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15452594
>
>Such a comparison is apples to oranges IAC, as most of the US debt
>is at the federal level (~60% of US GDP) to which you would have to add
>the debt of state level of the US. Here california adds [small] measurable increase,
>as the deficit of this year is a bit over 1% and total deficit is about 4%.
>Yes, the other states of the US have to added as well,
>and I guess there are mostly deficits [It is government after all <vbg>. ]
>Estimated California debt after this year still only 10% of total California GNP.
>
>In the EU the *member countries of the EU* are saddled to a different degree with debt,
>which accrued is nearly all of the european debt. The debt at the EU federal level is small
>(as such the "EU federal government" is still tiny compared to US federal,
>but probably only because it is relatively young <bg>), so to get a realistic picture,
>you have to compare (US federal + state debt) ~ EU (EU "federal" + member countries) debt.
>This puts US >70% vs EU > 80%.
>
>Even a SWAG estimate (10% state + 63% federal) of "partial" debt for California puts them
>well ahead compared to Greece with more than 100% of own GDP. As Greece ***new***
>deficit is well above 12% even after cuts and before even exacter recconning, the trend
>is still bad for that country. California itself has only a budget deficit of ~1%, but you have to
>add the budget deficit for the federal level <vbg>.
>
>Seen as a whole, the US gets the benefit of the federal part of the debt
>still getting lower interest rates: Greece will get hit very hard by the next rollover credits
>(which _IS_ the main point of attraction for investors and other EU countries -
>these countries are asked to "level" the interest spread. )
>
>regards
>
>thomas

Nice summary.
.·*´¨)
.·`TCH
(..·*

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