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18/05/2010 22:06:09
Information générale
Forum:
Politics
Catégorie:
Autre
Titre:
Divers
Thread ID:
01465063
Message ID:
01465370
Vues:
47
If you're interested in the wisdom of crowds I'd suggest trying a place like intrade where people can place bets on world events. Follow the trends.

20/20 did a piece on the idea in 2008 : http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4826867

>Before you read on be warned that this is a weird and strange place - http://halfpasthuman.com/
>
>They go out of their way to say that they miss the mark on many predictions, and they try to make it spooky, but ignore that. So, using the wisdom of crowds. eg - Show a hundred people a bull and ask them how much it weighs. They'll guess wrong almost everytime. But average the guesses and the answer will be remarkably close to the exact weight. These folks take the searches people conduct through search engines and load the data into a SQL Server cube. Then they extract predictions, trends, co relations etcetera which they sell in a pdf format for ten dollars. After looking at their weird web site several times, I finally said . . ."it's only ten bucks" and I bought it. It is strange reading, but two dates stand out for this year. It seems that something big MAY happen near or on July 8th (financial) and November 11th (Terrorism). It also suggested that this spring there will probably be a volcanic eruption, but that didn't happen did it?
Wine is sunlight, held together by water - Galileo Galilei
Un jour sans vin est comme un jour sans soleil - Louis Pasteur
Water separates the people of the world; wine unites them - anonymous
Wine is the most civilized thing in the world - Ernest Hemingway
Wine makes daily living easier, less hurried, with fewer tensions and more tolerance - Benjamin Franklin
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