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Randall : The euro as we know it is dead
Message
From
27/05/2010 12:20:09
 
 
To
22/05/2010 03:46:02
General information
Forum:
Finances
Category:
Other
Miscellaneous
Thread ID:
01465506
Message ID:
01466264
Views:
41
Responses in-line. In addition I just posted Message# 1466268 for more information.

>>In one respect, Mrs Merkel is right: "The euro is in danger… if the euro fails, then Europe fails." What she has not yet admitted publicly is that the main cause of the single currency's peril appears beyond her control and therefore her impetuous response to its crisis of confidence is doomed to fail.
>>...
>>Telegraph loyalists with long memories will be shocked by none of this. In 1996, Sir Martin Jacomb, then chairman of the Prudential, set out with great prescience in two pieces for The Sunday Telegraph why a European single currency, without full political integration, would end in disaster. His prognosis of the ailments that might afflict the eurozone's sickliest constituents reads as if it was penned to sum up today's turmoil.
>>
>>"A country which does not handle its public finances prudently will find its long-term borrowing costs adjusted accordingly," Sir Martin predicted. "Although theory says that default is unlikely, nevertheless, a country that spends too much public money, and allows its wage costs to become uncompetitive, will experience rising unemployment and falling economic activity. The social costs may become impossible to bear."
>>

>>
>>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/7746806/Whatever-Germany-does-the-euro-as-we-know-it-is-dead.html
>
>
>Greece represents barely 2% of Euro economy and would never be able to bring euro down without 'little hellp from our friends'.

Greece, by itself, cannot bring down the Euro, as I've previously stated they are the first domino. The Euro could likely survive a Greek default as well as Portugal and maybe Italy. It cannot survive more than one and it cannot survive if Spain fails.

>What is happening to Euro lately is pure financial terrorisam. Merkel banning naked short selling is not enough, but I would say it is
>step in right direction in combating global financial gangsters. That ban should IMO become global.

Then you do not believe in the free market. There is no difference between investing in a stock or bond to the downside as well as the upside. Without that you do not have the two sides to a trade. The knee-jerk ban of certain naked shorts is shortsighted, panicky and yet another blow to confidence in the political leadership in time of crisis.

>Financial systems globally are in need for complete reform and TOUGH regulation. Next good thing would be (as she proposed) global tax on financial transactions. On EACH AND EVERY ONE!

Which will further damage investors appetite for Euro markets and continue to tighten the pool of funds which are so desperately needed.

>If you can sit at home and gamble on SE in pursue of easy money, then you should as well pay tax immediately on all your 'winnings'. If you loose, then other side should pay tax on their 'winning'. So weather you win, or sophisticated BOT softwares you are betting against, your country should receive some money for it.

If you think of investing as gambling then you should not be investing. With gambling, you know the house odds depending on the strategy you use and the payout tables. There is no such set odds with investing. In addition, with gambling, you are playing against the house and the odds always favor the house. With the stock exchange there is no house to "play" against. One side buys the other sells, hence "exchange".

>Stock exhanges were not invented to become global (rigged) casinoes but for enterprises to gain access to funds needed for expansion. Therefore they should be returned to their original function.

Again, investing is not gambling and if you think of it that way you should not participate.

>Otherwise, not only Euro but all global currencies (and economies) are in big jeopardy. It happened to you back in 2007, it is happening to EU nowdays. Unless we have more Merkel's , sonner or later we are all doomed.

The Euro was a poor concept from the start. Launching a common currency across multiple countries with divergent priorities in regards to investment, public spending, debt and culture was a bad idea, however, it could work if there was consistent central leadership. Since that clearly does not exist, there is no way for the Euro countries to speak as one in regards to their currency. In addition, all member states are subject to divergent political winds within their own governments. The downfall was inevitable without dramatic change to the structure of the common currency countries.

>After couple of rounds of global inflation spirales, none of us will enjoy secure retirement (unless you have rental income). People will
>have to go back in rural areas in order to be able to produce daily food, or live poorly in the cities. Hence making 75k-100k all your life and then eventually getting todays 400$ worth of pension to live on. (It might be called 3,000$ / month but it will be still just 400 today's dollars or euros).
>
>This is where current situation is leading us.

The Euro-zone has designed it's own downfall and has no one else to blame but themselves. Now the question is, can they pull themselves out? I personally think yes. It will be tough. It will require strong leadership and a huge shift away from the growth-crippling belief in Euro-socialism as a viable long term economic position, but yes, I think that Europe has withstood many hard times in the past and has made the tough choices to push through.
Wine is sunlight, held together by water - Galileo Galilei
Un jour sans vin est comme un jour sans soleil - Louis Pasteur
Water separates the people of the world; wine unites them - anonymous
Wine is the most civilized thing in the world - Ernest Hemingway
Wine makes daily living easier, less hurried, with fewer tensions and more tolerance - Benjamin Franklin
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