>>>>>How are the BP shares, Jake?
>>>>
>>>>Down...for now. ;) Honestly, I haven't quite filled my position, (6/8ths) I could use another drop to $25 or even $20. ;)
>>>>
>>>>This is a long term investment for me.
>>>
>>>Heard on BBC that the shares were up sharply this morning. My gold mine shares jumped a bit today with the increase in the price of an ounce. Nothing spectacular though.
>>
>>I got both the metal and a wonderful speculative gold stock which I've been playing with the house money for some time. ;)
>
>for the next year I guess our estimates have quite a few similarities. But the last 30 years we have been at least partially conditioned by low interest rates. When inflation returns, it will bring her sister, higher interest. Typically stocks go south. Least in danger are those companies able to hike their prices in accord with inflation. But how much of the way things work will still be correct this century ?
>
>Housing bubbles of such magnitude and defaltion are concepts I have no frame of reference. And living im a country with no growth in numbers makes me wonder about the possibility of sudden changes in the free / needed ratio of rental space in about 20 years...
>
>Yes, oogling bp as a stock to hold has its charme, but will stocks as a whole stay at the level reached only through more than 25 years of low or lowering interest ? "Bubbles" happen partially because of too much money floating around, which definately was the case *and* was the "medicine" prescribed for the euro weakness.

All fair points and I do believe diving in as I did is a risk. Rising inflation and high interest likely means higher commodity prices. Developing nations require fuel. Both of these factor into my choice regarding BP. I felt I'm young enough to take a shot as the reward is potentially great.

As for bubbles, count me in the "debt-bubble" camp. I do not like what's happening, worldwide, with government debt. I see a 2nd credit crunch on the horizon and no way to bail us out this time.

>regards
>
>thomas

Have a great weekend!