On point #1 (the dreaded Excel manager), I've seen too many instances where these types of "applications" (using the term loosely) became "de-facto" in-office standards, via "managerial fiat". They wouldn't have been so bad, were it not for the fact that they didn't scale at all...sometimes not even beyond the original author. <s>
So I don't know if I would use the word "bemoan" (and it's not just .NET developers, it's DBAs as well)....I'd jump straight to "rightful bitching". :)
On point #2 (it's been predicted that business users would come to dominate)....well, it's also been predicted that the world would end in 2012. I guess that's a safe bet, at least for another year. :)
That prediction has been made with each passing decade, and it's never come to fruition - most who use the Office tools and newer tools like PowerPivot and its "self-service BI" mantra agree that an effective user of these tools must double as a "gear-head". At best, the newer tools you speak of, merely shift some of the workload for immediate needs. At worst, they require the business users to learn some new language (like DAX, MDX, etc.)
So your "one ringy dingy, two ringy dingy" analogy is quaint, but not exactly spot-on.