>>But then you should adjust those estimates by the number of fashion geeks using iOS and Android for non biz reasons - not a mass market, but a sizable chunk of the smaller pie.
OK, but those people are also a target for new breeds of app- e.g. multiuser mobile social media games. The punters come, the developers follow, more punters are attracted, more developers follow... seems to me we're *well* down this road already. Meanwhile MS has announced that its next mobile OS isn't backward compatible.
"... They ne'er cared for us
yet: suffer us to famish, and their store-houses
crammed with grain; make edicts for usury, to
support usurers; repeal daily any wholesome act
established against the rich, and provide more
piercing statutes daily, to chain up and restrain
the poor. If the wars eat us not up, they will; and
there's all the love they bear us."
-- Shakespeare: Coriolanus, Act 1, scene 1