I agree. And in fact, Microsoft has not sold 1.5M WinPhone7 devices to customers. They have sold 1.5M WinPhone7 devices to stores and distributers. The number Microsoft is not disclosing is the sell through numbers, or activations. Based on those numbers, it's likely well under 1M WinPhone7 devices has been activated. With 5000 apps in the Microsoft mobile marketplace to date and the rate at which new apps are being added, it would take over 10 years to have as many apps as the iPhone marketplace.

The WinPhone7 devices target two primary groups. 1) Those who don't already have a smartphone 2) Younger users who are very active on social media like Facebook. WinPhone7 does not target geeks, power users, business people, or the enterprise.

With HP soon coming out with new phones based on Palm WebOS, and Blackberry and Nokia phones evolving it's likely that WInPhone7 will share the among the bottom 5% of the marketplace of smartphones - just like the Zune has in the media player/device marketplace since it was released. I expect when the activation numbers are released for WinPhone7, along with the sales numbers for apps in the marketplace (around February), they will be much lower than expected, certainly.

>>>I love Windows Phone 7 and think not only is it a game changer, but will be the preeminent platform in the not so distant future.
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>Nice article, and I quite like the WP7 as well... but preeminence seems unlikely. Earlier predictions of millions of Windows Phone 7 sales in the first few days did not come true. MS now says that only 1.5M devices were sold in the first 6 weeks. This compares to 3M iPhones in its first 3 weeks on the market.... and more than 300,000 Android devices being activated daily, meaning that another 12M Android devices were activated during WP7's initial sales frenzy. On that basis, WP7 is well behind Android and falling further behind every day. So if MS and its fans have something up their sleeves to justify the sunny confidence, IMHO they'd better reveal it ASAP.