>>>>Just a friendly warning. The markets are forming a double-top & inverse head & shoulders.
>>>>http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=%5Edji+%5Egspc+%5EIXIC+%5ERUT
>>>>
>>>>This is not yet confirmed but I suggest all investors tread very carefully.
>>>
>>>How often has this formation been previously identified correctly and subsequent price movements observed, one way or or the other? i.e. where is the real statistical evidence that this has any meaning or ability to predict subsequent price movements whatsoever? Show me where it happened a statistically significant number of times previously with a statistically significant price movement subsequently. Without that information this is an utterly useless exercise in FUD.
>>
>>I take issue with your FUD characterization, as I am not engaging in fear, nor uncertantity. I am certain that a significant move (+- 5%) is coming in short order (by the end of June) and I suggest being careful not scared. One of those indicators points to a big upside.
>>
>>I'll leave "real statistical evidence" to the experts. I am an amateur who learns, especially from recent history.
>>http://www.wyattresearch.com/article/russell_2000_double_top_dominates_immediate_picture/14279
>>
>>I posted in the chatter forum, not news. ;)
>
>No insult intended but if you stick out your neck and make a prediction then you invite ... debate. Without some real statistical evidence it means nothing. Maybe there will be a big move, maybe not. Maybe 5%, may 10%, maybe1%. Who knows? So when we make a prediction we should back up that prediction with evidence. Without evidence then we simply espouse opinion.
>
>One thing is for sure, any pattern which can truly predict anything would quickly become arbitraged out of existence and hence useless. That assumes that a pattern can actually foretell the future in the first place; something yet to be backed up with evidence which, as soon as such evidence were provided, would make the pattern worthless as everyone attempts to use it before everyone else and hence changes the patterns predictive value - catch-22.
>
>Also, your certainty means nothing really. That I or you or someone else are certain or not is irrelevant. There are millions of market participants and each time they buy or sell something are certain they are doing the right thing. For every buyer there is a seller and so we express our opinions.
>
>Trying to trade the market is based on a hugely dangerous assumption which is that one can consistently and over-time out-trade and out-predict the vast majority of other traders, many of which have far more resources, knowledge, databases, systems, computing power and weight in the market than oneself. Really, can we do that, not just once or twice, calling it right now and then, but do it for 20 or 30 years during our investing lifetimes?
>
>I hope the market doesn't fall badly - it would make far more people worse off than vice-versa. If it happens then so be it. One's real protection when investing is asset class diversification, sector diversification, geographic diversification, currency diversification and stock-broker/investment bank diversification plus taking a long term view.

First of all, this is an interesting discussion between two people with knowledge of the stock market. Which does not include me. I will follow this thread.

I am on your side about certainty. If stock market trends were a certainty we would all be millionaires. There are some knowledgeable enough to do very well. But even they get their heinies roasted sometimes.