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Prediction : We're already in a double-dip
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29/07/2011 15:12:45
 
 
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Forum:
Politics
Category:
Other
Title:
Prediction : We're already in a double-dip
Miscellaneous
Thread ID:
01519631
Message ID:
01519631
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57
First off I have zero documented proof at this time, this is just my gut feeling based upon experience & observation.

After reviewing the data released today regarding GDP over the last 3 quarters I've come to my opinion.

Here's my case :
Recession : A decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters
Data: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7662I420110729
2nd Quarter 2011
Initial - 1.3

1st Quarter 2011
Initial - 1.9
1st revision - 0.4

4th Quarter 2010
Initial - 3.2
1st revision - 3.1
2nd revision - 2.3

I believe the next revision to 1st quarter GDP will show a contraction and that 2nd quarter is overstated. Anecdotally, I'm not seeing an interest in commercial real estate which accompanies private sector growth. In addition, local and state governments are cutting back staff and thus space in droves. Residental real estate prices are mired and the renters are booming.

Here's more:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43941459
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, decelerated sharply to a 0.1 percent rate -- the weakest since the recession ended two years ago.

Spending grew at a 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter.
...
U.S. civilian employment costs surged a steeper-than-expected 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the biggest gain since September 2008, on a jump in benefits costs, Labor Department data showed on Friday.


Note: It's not all bad news, there are some positives as well including a rise in home building and a moderation of inflation pressures.

Thoughts?
Wine is sunlight, held together by water - Galileo Galilei
Un jour sans vin est comme un jour sans soleil - Louis Pasteur
Water separates the people of the world; wine unites them - anonymous
Wine is the most civilized thing in the world - Ernest Hemingway
Wine makes daily living easier, less hurried, with fewer tensions and more tolerance - Benjamin Franklin
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