I keep seeing this statistic being quoted about the odds of being hit by a bit of Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite as it re-enters.

1 in 3200

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/8775561/Nasa-satellite-to-fall-to-earth-on-Friday-showering-debris.html

I wonder how they work this out. My gut feeling is that the odds are much higher (less likely)

Nick