There's still a big wild card out there. Oracle's lawsuit against Google over patent infringement. Legal experts have all but stated it's game over for Google on this case and Oracle will win. The case will continue to drag on for years via appeals, etc. But there are a few possbile outcomes here, assume Oracle actually wins this thing.

- Google is forced to stop all Android development and sales. Their only options then will be to surrender the market or rewrite Android. That becomes a big win for Xamarin. I don't see this scenario happening though

- Google is forced to pay ongoing licensing costs to Oracle. The likely outcome, with a couple of possibilities:

- At this point, Google will no longer be able to give away Android and will start charging for it.

- Google pulls Android from the market except for its Motorola division, which gets it exclusively.

Either of those last two scenarios opens things up for Windows Phones.We're already seeing some companies pull back Android tablets (Samsung for example, but that's due to Apple) and starting to lean to Windows there.

>I agree with you about the hardware vendor and marketing issues. Phone carriers prefer to promote Androids and even iPhones over Windows Phones. Many Win8 tablet makers will probably also sell Android tablets. Microsoft is at a disadvantage relying on hardware companies and partners to market and sell devices based on Microsoft software, especially when the same companies have Android devices as well.