>>>Great blog post Joel. I'd like to read a part 2 of your post if you do one after you listen to the latest CodeCast show, with more of your thoughts, questions, and any issues from this discussion...
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>>>CodeCast Episode 112: Windows 8 Developer Roadmap with Mary Jo Foley
>>>http://www.code-magazine.com/codecast/?messageid=51e30453-1663-4a6d-aee2-f14d5c1ba59c
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>>Good show. It sounds like we are of like mind on a lot of things regarding Metro.
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>Speaking of Metro...
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>It's interesting how Microsoft created the Zune device. Not just a very nice device, but the Zune client for Windows and the Zune Marketplace (with Zune Pass, all you can download for $15/month). Yet with great hardware and software, and the Metro UI, the Zune didn't get more than about 3% of the music player (iPod like) market share, and was eventually killed my Microsoft (the device).
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>Then Microsoft created a new smartphone platform OS based on the Zune-like Metro UI/UX, requiring new tools and apps in the market space killing Windows Mobile. And in one year since launch and predicting they would sell 13 million by end of 2011, it's sold less than 3 million and the market share for Microsoft smart phones is actually decreasing, with old Windows Mobile phones still selling as part of that decreasing share. While there have been predictions that Microsoft will gain the #2 smartphone spot by 2015, there is no evidence that will happen at all, and no way to justify it when their market share continues to decrease rather than increase. Then there is the Nokia deal. But the issue is Nokia is big on selling non-smartphones that are ultra-cheap in non-US countries. But data usage isn't free, and in the U.S., even a $1 smartphone will cost a user $2000+ in a 2 year contract for voice+data plan with it. And when people select a smartphone, they do so based on the OS and platform, not by the name that is engraved at the top of the device. So a Windows Phone with a Nokia name on it is still a Windows Phone. Until Windows Phone marketshare actually starts to 'increase', and until they actually get into 3rd place (which would be a very distant 3rd place behind Android and iPhone), there is no way to conclude Microsoft is or will be a significant player in the smartphone market.
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>If the Metro UI/UX with the existing Windows Phone Marketplace apps aren't enough to get people to select a Windows Phone over Android sand iPhones, and with Zune devices dead after a few years in the market, there is no evidence that the Metro based UI is what people want or need. I have yet to see one Metro based app on Windows 8 that has any usefulness at all, especially compared to a far nicer and more rich Win32 based version of the same app. To me, Metro apps look like DOS apps with some graphics added. The only real positive thing to say about Metro is that "it's different". There is no evidence yet that consumers will point it and say "that's what I want" as a computer OS, and no evidence that a business would want or need a Metro UI or Metro apps for their desktops and notebook PCs. In fact, I expect most businesses would not upgrade to Win8 unless they can change Metro to not be the default and possible disable it completely for non-tablet PCs. Microsoft created the Tablet PC OS almost 10 years ago, and the Windows Tablet PCs failed.
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>So called desktop apps (non Metro) on ARM based Win8 tablets will require Win32 apps to be recompiled for ARM, much like was done for PowerPC chips on the Mac years ago. It's yet to be disclosed what kind of computability issues will exist in porting x86 apps over to ARM, and which products will do it (like Photoshop, utilities, drivers, etc). Office sales are now more than Windows sales. What will Office look and feel like on Metro, and how much resources will MS put into Office for Metro over Office for x86/ARM non-Metro, and how will that impact Office sales long term?
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>If Windows 8 succeeds with ARM based tablets, will Microsoft also succeeds in upgrading older Windows based PCs (desktops and notebooks) to Windows 8 as well? It's possible Microsoft will succeed at both. But as of now, and especially based on history of the failed Zune, Windows Phone, and Tablet PC, I see no evidence to conclude Microsoft will succeed at either. I think most of the optimism around the potential success for Windows 8 is only based on wishful thinking at this point, not based on evidence or history.
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>How will Windows Phone evolve into Windows 8? Mary Jo says she heard the path will likely be to add the Win8 Metro base to Windows Phone 8, breaking compatibility (or out-dating) current Silverlight/XNA based Windows Phone 7.x apps. It seems the only way for Microsoft to move forward with merging their phone, tablet, and PC platforms. Silverlight is no longer strategic, basically in the same boat as VFP was last decade. LightSwitch was designed to create Silverlight apps when Silverlight was hot. Now it appears the next version of LightSwitch will create HTML5 apps, likely for Metro exclusive. Look at the sales ranking of LightSwitch on amazon.com, it's often around #2000, almost always the same as VFP 9.0, even though VFP 9.0 is 3 times the price and over 6 years old. LightSwitch was not mentioned at Build at all last week, Microsoft is not promoting it or even talking about it even though it shipped only two months ago. Developer loyalty for the Microsoft platform is easily at an all-time low, and I can't see how continuing to break backward compatibility will help that trend.
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>Some people say that Microsoft knows how to complete in an area they are not dominate, like IE against Netscape, Windows Mobile (PocketPC) against Palm, Xbox against Sony PlayStation. But in all those cases, not only did Microsoft do things right, but their success was always based on massive mistakes by their competitors. Google and Apple are just not making mistakes like those other companies, which is why Zune, Windows Phone, Bing, etc. are all failing to even get close to competing on any significant level.
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>By the time Windows 8 ships, the iPad 3 will have been out for a while already, and there will be an iOS 6 (with iOS 5 coming soon as the biggest iOS upgrade ever). Imagine what the tablet market will be like in a full year from now between iPads and Androids.
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>Today, Apple market cap is now over 75% larger than Microsoft, Microsoft is only 25% larger than Google, and IBM is almost at the same as MSFT (was above it recently). It appears possible and even likely that within a 2 year window, Microsoft will have gone from the #1 to #4 tech company. Steve Jobs and Bill Gates share a legacy that their companies continued to decline after their departure. BTW, the developer strategy and messaging for Windows is no longer controlled by the developer division (VS/.NET) at Microsoft, it's controlled by Steven Sinofsky and the Windows division. 2013 will be a very interesting year for Microsoft, and Steve Ballmer.
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>Will Microsoft's efforts to build developer tools and enhance their own apps for Metro end up competing with their strategy and sales of Windows upgrades and Windows based desktop apps? For developers and businesses, will the trend through this decade be for an increasing or decreasing number of apps (consumer and line of business) created to run exclusively on the Windows platform, or more towards creating cross platform/browser/device solutions?

Great stuff, Ken. It's good to see you posting.