>Phone longevity is reducing. Used to be 3 years, now down to 1 year for some networks. And experts are saying that unsubsidized Android smartphones will be less than $100 by the end of 2012. IMHO the telephone providers expect consumers will prefer to replace rather than messing with OS, especially with the rapid hardware evolution expected between now and 2015. If this is true then maybe it's best to choose on price in 2011 in the expectation that you'll want to replace in 12-18 months anyway.
I will probably wait a few more weeks or months before changing the current phone I have. By then, new models might be released and technology a little bit ahead.