today's news - small change but interesting still
http://www.ubuntuvibes.com/2012/01/linux-market-share-on-desktop-increased.html and of course that's with the desktop.
I'm really not sure why you have such a hard time with Linux (you have reported it many times) - most don't. I have many Linux servers running without much if any maintenance on my part (running Postgres, Postfix and Apache). Most of the world uses Apache (worlds most popular web server) on a Linux server as has been the case for years. But to answer you directly I'm not limiting my self to Linux. I believe Apple has a good chance of really eating into MS. My kids are disappointed when I provided windows laptops and not Mac's. I attended several conferences this year and I noted that over half of the attendees were using Mac's. So something is changing. Of course you might ask what conferences - I attended SCALE ( a linux showcase), postgres (open source database), pycon (open source python). So I expected to see Linux on laptops - no I saw Mac's. My point is simple Apple's marketing is working and developers see the advantages of Mac's.
It won't be long before MS feels the pressure to move with the crowd. But even today it sounds like Ballmer isn't listening. The rumor of the day is MS is going buy Nokia. I'm not sure what MS will get from buying Nokia - but I doubt it will be market share. Maybe patents to sue the world.
Johnf