>>>http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
>>>
>>>Interesting how the BLS calls 60,000 households each month and from the gathered data defines the number of people employed or unemployed. That seems to give it a less than personal feeling for reality. One persons reality may differ from the BLS.
>>
>>Just looked it up and there are about 115,000,000 households in the US. Found a sample size calculator online and it says that the confidence interval for 60,000 out of 115,000,000 is 0.4 at the 95% level. That is, that 95% of the time, the number they publish based on that survey is within 0.4% of accurate. That's pretty good. Switching to the 99% confidence level, the interval goes to 0.53%. Again, pretty good.
>>
>>Tamar
>
>I think that in order for the Confidence level Calc to be reliable, you have to assume the sample was completely random. IOW, if the sample was skewed, i.e. just call households in Scarsdale, NY, that would definitely skew the results.
>
>Ken

I do wonder what communities are called. How about Detroit, and California’s Central Valley? There are lots of areas where unemployment is high. Some of our urban areas have around 50% unemployment.

The gods that control statistics are no doubt pleased with the results and have used this system since 1940 (they tell us). I just do not have faith that the “official unemployment” numbers are accurate. They are very impersonal and leave much to be desired.

When Nixon was President, the official Republican party line was: “We must have 6% unemployment to control inflation”! To assist our nations financial condition, Nixon imposed Economic Phase 1, 2, 3, 4, and oh yes even 4 ½. The basic concept was if you were employed and not under a union contract, you should not receive a pay raise. To receive a raise would be a cause for inflation.

Prices were not allowed to raise under Nixon’s plan. Guess what? Companies were loyal to the United States and therefore did not raise employee’s salaries. However, they raised prices as they pleased and nothing was done to them.

We also enjoyed what we called “Nixon Savings Time”. In order to improve the economy by reducing our use of electricity, Nixon changed the nations timetable. At about 8 AM the sun would raise and mothers were in an uproar! Kids were going to school in the dark. It was then determined that the actual electricity usage nation wide increased 5%. So we went back to standard time.

One thing for sure: The BLS needs people to call those 60,000 souls each month. So at least we know the callers are employed.

Tom