>He is at best 50-50. His campaign in particular and his party in general are doing everything they can to screw up his advantages. War on women, Julia, fizzle. Non Cherokee Warren, splat. Piss off Catholics, check and double check. Pro gay-marriage, collect $1mil, but not, flop. Not that any of it really matters considering no matter how they spin, manipulate the stats or pontificate, no one thinks the economy is getting any better and that's what costs incumbents their jobs.

>He's been losing ground to Romney since his nomination was secured and is losing outright in one poll.

I'm not particularly surprised by this. The Republicans have been having, at least until recently, what resembles a real primary and they've been getting most of the publicity. With Romney "winning" the nomination he's been tagged with the "Winner" label and most voters identify themselves with the "winner" regardless of policy or platform. (which is why most "news" coverage concentrates on who's ahead in the poll rather than anything substantive about policy)

>It's only May. To be losing this early is a catastrophe.......

I think that to be losing this early is meaningless. If memory serves....eight years ago the Bush presidency was so shakey the Dems could have put up almost anybody and won. Unfortunately, they put up something worse than almost anybody and we were stuck with four more years.

I have the feeling that Romney's campaign will be similar to Kerry's. He's never going to be able to give the impression that he's anything other than part of the elite.

SET DRIFT ON
It always amazed me that The Shrub (in the mode of "The Messiah" name-callers) was able to portray himself as not part of the "Eastern Establishment" despite coming from a definitely Eastern Establishment family and having degrees from both Harvard and Yale
SET DRIFT OFF

Romney's going to be like every other politician (of any stripe) and be caught backing away from his statements of 1,2,4, or more years ago to satisfy the current requirement to think "X" on some particular issue.

Despite all the flaws of Obama's administration the Republicans will run such a nasty, vitriolic, mud-slinging, anti-Obama rather than pro-Romney campaign that the voting public will turn them off. The Democrates will almost certainly run the same kind of campaign against Romney with essentially the same result.

In short, I think it is again going to be a personality contest and Obama will win that by a fairly substantial margin.

We'll see in November.