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AGW : When models meet reality
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26/06/2012 14:21:16
 
 
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Title:
AGW : When models meet reality
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01546949
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01546949
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From 2009
The world's largest ice sheet has started to melt along its coastal fringes, raising fears that global sea levels will rise faster than scientists expected
...
The scientists used a computer model to take account of ongoing movements in the Earth's surface caused by the retreat of glaciers at the end of the last ice age. Uncertainties in the model gave the scientists only a broad estimate of ice loss in the East Antarctic ice sheet of between 5bn and 109bn tonnes a year.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasa

From 2011
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an accelerating pace, according to a new study. The findings of the study - the longest to date of changes in polar ice sheet mass - suggest these ice sheets are overtaking ice loss from Earth's mountain glaciers and ice caps to become the dominant contributor to global sea level rise, much sooner than model forecasts have predicted.
...
Rignot's team combined nearly two decades (1992-2009) of monthly satellite measurements with advanced regional atmospheric climate model data to examine changes in ice sheet mass and trends in acceleration of ice loss.

http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2011/2011-09.shtml

Today
A team of scientists have drilled holes through an Antarctic ice shelf, the Fimbul Ice Shelf, to gather the first direct measurements regarding melting of the shelf’s underside. A group of elephant seals, outfitted with sensors that measure salinity, temperature, and depth sensors added fundamental information to the scientists’ data set, which led the researchers to conclude that parts of eastern Antarctica are melting at significantly lower rates than current models predict.
...
It turns out that past studies, which were based on computer models without any direct data for comparison or guidance, overestimate the water temperatures and extent of melting beneath the Fimbul Ice Shelf. This has led to the misconception, Hattermann said, that the ice shelf is losing mass at a faster rate than it is gaining mass, leading to an overall loss of mass. The model results were in contrast to the available data from satellite observations, which are supported by the new measurements.

The team’s results show that water temperatures are far lower than computer models predicted, which means that the Fimbul Ice Shelf is melting at a slower rate. Perhaps indicating that the shelf is neither losing nor gaining mass at the moment because ice buildup from snowfall has kept up with the rate of mass loss, Hattermann said.

http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2012/2012-31.shtml

It's a good thing we didn't spend two decades in a full media and political driven panic about rising sea levels flooding the world. Thankfully we didn't hurl billions of dollars at "science" based on models without any corroborating observational data. Mercifully we didn't start imposing unjustified regulations on carbon based fuels unnecessarily driving up costs and killing the world's poor through the simple act of depriving them of electricity and forcing them into unhealthy living conditions like destroying forests for coal to burn in their homes. It's a good thing we have the intellectual capacity to recognize chicken little and ignore his drivel. >:\
Wine is sunlight, held together by water - Galileo Galilei
Un jour sans vin est comme un jour sans soleil - Louis Pasteur
Water separates the people of the world; wine unites them - anonymous
Wine is the most civilized thing in the world - Ernest Hemingway
Wine makes daily living easier, less hurried, with fewer tensions and more tolerance - Benjamin Franklin
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