>>I currently estimate the Bush/Gore as the best predictor for state behaviour being different from usual.
>>From that assumption I believe Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina to be leaning R like Georgia,
>>while Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio lean D - Ohio as the one least secure and perhaps captured by R.
>>Florida: will consciously refrain from making predictions
>>Nevada [and perhaps New Hampshire also] seen as possible surprize areas where D
>>support is less strong than currently pollster-predicted.
>>BTW: can anybody tell me what is so different in New Mexico
>>that their voting pattern is sharply different from their neighbour states ?
>>
>
>North Carolina may go R but I seriously doubt it. I cannot see Wisconsin or Colorado going R.... I think all three will end up D by election time.
>(Edited typo)

IF NC stays D, Obama will have at least 300 - 350 votes: Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa will then be D as well,
Colorado and Virginia also on the brink could give Obama a similarly lopsided win as last time -
that big a win I don't see, he has lost his virginity...
If I think he is only dead in the water, he is already belly-up and smelling in your view

Can you give some idea why New Mexico is strong D ?

regards

thomas