>>>>>I say supposedly, because although polls now show NC leaning to the Republican side, unless some huge blunder occurs (and it would have to be so huge as to sway even diehards), I think that Obama will take NC, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin on November 6th. The popular vote may go the other way some of those states, but the electoral will go Obama.
>>>>
>>>>your link to www.fivethirtyeight.com fits my personal view/estimates really well, esp. the granular view of states
>>>>leaning to a candidate as percentage of winning probabilty. I see the swing states result mostly as a function of
>>>>undecided voters switching to one camp, and more swing states falling into a specific camp
>>>>as the general trend moves the watershed line, which is the closest race state among those states lined up
>>>>along the probability dimension/scale.
>>>>
>>>>On that scale NC is one of the swing states to fall most likely/earliest to Romney: do you think NC is placed at a false point
>>>>on that scale or that Obama will win by that great a margin ? In my view of things, the most likely swing states to fall to
>>>>Romney are (order desc) NC, Va, Co, NH, Nev - Fl somewhere in between (one of the states I feel fluctuate too much for
>>>>good take from overseas) and Oh being the one probably most decisive for winning the presidency in case it really is a close race on election day (fits with their tipping state and ROI calc) - which I think will not happen, as I said playing Cassandra last month.
>>>>
>>>>regards
>>>>
>>>>thomas
>>>
>>>NC will go Obama. None of the swing states really matter--all Obama has to do is get Ohio and he's won. IMHO, this is mostly just news organizations trying to attract viewers.
>>
>>That's a bold prediction. IMO if NC goes Obama it's over. Most of what I'm seeing tells me it won't. The trend, the money & staff pullout and the President's campaign's "oh heaven's no" reaction to being asked about giving up NC suggest the state is Romney's and the campaigns are focusing on closer races.
>>
>>Right now in the toss-us I see Romney taking NC, Virginia, Florida & Colorado. Obama taking Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Nevada & New Hampshire making it R-257 O-253 with Wisconsin and Ohio still in play (under 2% diff). Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes cannot win for either making Ohio critical to both.
>>
>>The trend towards Romney has slowed but is still moving. If Obama cannot stop it, election day may be a rout.
>
>Maybe I am just biased but I am seeing the momentum swing back the other way. After the debacle in the first debate, the last two debates have been very strong for Obama. He has seemed Presidential while Romney has at times come across as a kid trying on Dad's clothes. Which in a sense he is. How have some people come to view being governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2006 and being president of the U.S. the past four years as equivalent experiences?
>
>Among Romney's more ludicrous statements:
>
>1. "On day one I am going to accuse China of currency manipulation."
>
>2. "I am going to create 12 million new jobs and I know how to do it."

Good thing you didn't hear absolute bull$hit promises from the Messiah while he was a candidate (after his years as a community organizer and short stint voting present as a state senator). At least he had a nice racist mentor - that makes it better.