>I think this is interesting considering that Gallup has never been wrong with a lead this large this close to the end.

Are you sure?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/

That doesn't quite debunk your statement, but it does suggest that Gallup sometimes gets it very wrong. Can't remember whether it was that piece or another there that talked about Gallup tending to have wide swings late in the game.

Tamar