So, why did fewer whites show up to vote? First, as you pointed out, Romney was not the ideal candidate. My gut tells me that many of the people who voted for him did so because he's not Obama (despite your comment about voting for vs. against). Others just didn't vote because they didn't like Obama, but didn't like Romney either.

Also, Romney was tied to not being able to spend money campaigning between the primaries and the RNC. That was compounded by him tapping the fat cats during the primary and they maxed out the amount they could donate. He didn't get as much in small donations as Obama.

One other thing that worked against Romney...the weather. Obama quickly sent help and looked presidential while Romney and crew looked desperate.

>Not surprisingly I've been having a discussion with a couple people regarding the election. Since I was SO wrong, I have obviously been thinking about why. So last night I decided to watch cable news. I've watched sparingly little outside of debate coverage and then Friday and Monday pre-election when they were all focused mainly with prediction stuff and it was pretty light.
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>First off, AAARRRRGGGHHHH! How can people stand that on a daily basis?
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>Ok, so here's what I witnessed. MSNBC was doing what they do, namely demogouging the right as bigoted neanderthals who don't understand the changing demographics of the nation and are completely out of touch with blacks, latinos, women, gays, (insert other identity politic group here). CNN was breaking down the demos and trying to analyze the edges. Fox was trying to figure out what went wrong. Nothing really surprising. However, one number came up that sparked my interest. I do not remember who mentioned it, however, I do know that I only heard it once and against all the other statistics I had been swamped by, this one stuck out like Romney at the Y. Every talking head who referenced the increasing share of the electorate made up of blacks, latinos and "other" over 2008 (13% v 12.2%, 10% v 8.4%, 5% v 4.5% respectively) as compared to the drop in white share (72% v 75%) came to the same conclusion. That those groups dramatically increased their numbers and thus the electorate is shifting and if the Republican party does not self-reflect they are in for continuing failure.
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>As I'm absorbing all this, it seems to make sense. Then what I think is THE number jumped out. 6 million! As in there were an estimated 6 million fewer ballots cast by whites in 2012 compared to 2008. I was going to spend my lunch today doing some spreadsheet math to see how this affects the "shares" but thankfully someone at RCP has done the analysis.
>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106.html
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>Here's what I see as the heart of my massive failure of a prediction. This election was a referendum on Obama and people are more likely to vote "for" someone than "against". Thus, Romney was an ideal candidate for 1/3 of the Republican party who's most energized portion is clearly the economic conservatives. However, Romney was an awful candidate for the other 2/3 of the traditional Republican base, value voters & defense hawks. I saw the polling make a massive shift after the 1st debate and then pull closer down the stretch. While the averages were showing Obama in a narrow lead I saw the breakdowns of those polled, did some quick math compared to 2008 & 2010 and determined that if the averages are even slightly off in Romney's favor he's going to win Virginia, Florida, N Carolina and Ohio. I then saw Clinton in PA, the Romney ad buys in a couple other states and the Romney/Ryan rallys swelling in the home stretch and thought he had created the excitement to make people vote "for" him rather than "against" Obama. I was wrong. Devastatingly wrong. White voters are what overwhelmingly changed since 2008.
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>While the Republican party clearly has an issue with reaching minority voters and needs to address their issues far better in the future, that's not why Romney lost. He lost because fewer whites voted for him than voted for McCain. 6 million fewer! They simply didn't show up. Why? I do not know. This was billed as the latest "biggest election of our lifetime", yet 5 million fewer voters total showed up than 2008. Why?
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>I obviously have some thoughts on the whys but I'd like to hear other opinions as I've now resumed my normal life and will not be watching cable news (outside a major event) until 2014.