I'm not the person you need to argue with on this. I simply pointed out a contrasting view. In the end, it's all opinion and wild guesses.


>Yes. But I am more leaning to John's POV.
>
>http://www.zdnet.com/idc-global-pc-shipments-plunge-in-worst-drop-in-a-generation-7000013839/
>WIntel tabs/detachables and so on included would not have made a difference big enough to compensate. Even those here (me included) are debating themselves if they should get one them now.
>
>current OS distribution discussed in
>http://www.zdnet.com/windows-has-fallen-behind-apple-ios-and-google-android-7000008699/
>
>In there a jigger factor is introduced for economic impact on the balance sheet of MS:
>This will not be easy since "Microsoft would have to sell roughly 5 Windows Phones or roughly two Windows 8 RT tablets to offset the loss of one traditional Windows PC sale, which we estimate has an overall blended selling price of $60 for business and consumer."
>which could also be used to estimate leverage of the the pure device count. Or perhaps a correction equation based mainly on screen size, as >=9.5' devices should have a jigger factor of ~1.6 and typical 7' devices might be ~3. Similarly phablets will be 3.x to 4, while small smart screen devices will have lower "replacement effects", as those devices might still be used as phones primarily.
>
>Such jiggering would leave MS currently dominant at>66%, but that jiggered percentage will slide in time due to greater screen sizes in newer phones and sales of mobile devices increasing.
>
>http://www.zdnet.com/whos-killing-the-pc-blame-the-cloud-7000013954/
>has some points, but the most telling is IMO
>http://www.zdnet.com/the-real-reason-for-the-pc-sales-plunge-the-era-of-good-enough-computing-7000013878/
>
>New machines only make sense if you plan to run more VM's - which will eliminate more boxes. Paranoid me will keep boxes for main work, dedicated work laptop, internet usage in different subnet - but in 2002 I had a farm of machines running data mining tasks, 3 desktops at often visited client sides, 2 laptops running side-by side and as backup an old laptop and a desktop. Today I just have many VM's, either on the work laptop or 3.5 disk if using client HW.
>
>http://www.zdnet.com/five-operating-system-alternatives-to-windows-8-and-xp-7000013765/
>has a part describing better than myself my current beef with Touch OS when connected to a keyboard:
>
>But if you're putting data into a spreadsheet, creating web pages, or writing long emails or documents, the platform can quickly become annoying.
>You can solve those problems with a Bluetooth keyboard and a mouse, but do you know what you call a tablet with a keyboard and a mouse? I call it a laptop computer, myself.
>I find it very telling that Charlie Sorrel, a true hard-core iPad-for-work user, recently had to throw in the towel because of "Gorilla Arm". This ailment, which had been known about long before the iPad was a gleam in Steve Jobs' eyes, happens when you're always bringing your arm up to touch a screen. Even with a keyboard, Sorrel found that after using an iPad day after day for over a year, the result was so painful that he would "sometimes rush through posts just to get them finished".
>Jobs could have told him that. In fact, he did, back in 2010. "We've done tons of user testing on this and it turns out it doesn't work. Touch surfaces don't want to be vertical. It gives great demo, but after a short period of time, you start to fatigue, and after an extended period of time, your arm wants to fall off."
>So, go ahead and support bring your own device for tablets if you like, just don't expect them to replace PCs. They won't.
>
>IMO W8 can only succeed if they allow a 7' wPad as alternate input device when processing task is shifted to PC. Then user has a choice of mouse or fingers - and even then, with mouse I'd argue for a desktop/icon or start menu option settable by the user. Or even better: attach keyboard and mouse to wPad as input to house server, passing/echoing wPad input on a 30' screen fed from the house server via WLAN or long DVI cable. Given the current dislike of MS in the mobile space, this could accustom some PC users to Metro enough to buy some WinRT/WPx.x devices. Otherwise - game over for MS in mobile space, with success defined as more than 12%. Also, as the cloud offerings mean that a "family PC" set up as back up or VM server will not be needed by all households, chances for moving those remainig servers away from MS are higher percentagewise. And even the "family PCs" in the cloud will probably result in a heavy reduction fo the MS balance sheet, as volume discounts will be realized. Post-PC era is already becoming clear, question is only how big a player MS remains on those remaining multicores.
>
>regards
>
>thomas