But you're totally overlooking the fairly quick turnaround on mobile device purchases. 2 years max, 1 year average. Fortunes can turn very quickly.

Also usage stats are pretty interesting. Lots of Android usage - especially on the low end where the largest share of their sales comes from because the phones are the cheapest in the market - are also not utilizing the phones for higher end usage (ie. heavy browsing, app usage etc.) In the end, that's a very important marker because the people you build apps for - especially business apps - are not likely to be the low end users.

Depends on market too - I spent a bunch of time in Europe this summer and everywhere I went there, iOS devices were everywhere. Much less Android than I see here in the states. Another thing to consider is that Apple will have to be more competitive going forward, so that will change the dynamics of Android as well - if the price differential drops more people from the lower end likely will consider getting iDevices.

In my experience for higher end and sophisicated users the majority continue to use iOS. There are also high end Android phones as well as Windows Phone in that percentile but the numbers there look quite a bit different than the general picture.

IMHO Android is a train wreck. I've had several Android devices and not low end devices either, but they all were terrible. When it comes to platform, Android by far is the sloppiest and least coherent of the big mobile platforms. Usability is low, most of the apps are sub par compared to iOS, and the whole infrastructure for device updates supply chain management is pitiful (none of the devices I owned ended up getting upgraded to later versions of Android through providers). Yes it's nice for tinkering, customizing and tweaking, but that's for a small minority. I like to customize stuff too, but you know what for a mobile device I just want something that works out of the gate. I don't want to have to tweak and futz around with stuff on the go.

So - I think there's a lot more to this than just the numbers and it's my belief that things in this space can and will change drastically and potentially quickly. This platform is not anywhere near a maturity stage where you can declare a winner that will stick long term.

+++ Rick ---




>Charles,
>
>Android continues to increase its market share, rising to > 80% of smartphones shipped in most recent 2013 figures. Yep, already at over 50% market share with 80% of new shipments going the Android way. Mathematically impossible to catch up when Android already has lapped WP 10 times and is speeding away into the distance. The race now is between Android device manufacturers- currently led by Korean firms Samsung and LG.
>
>Just as Windows ruled by being overwhelming incumbent making it pointless to consider alternatives, Android has done the same for the foreseeable future on devices apart from Apple that continues to occupy its own curious wealthy niche. So all MS is doing is burning through cash to avoid having to admit that the emperor has no clothes. In time Google will be delighted to concoct a series of virtual small boys to shout out the truth- or maybe not, because in the internet age most people already know and it's not a problem for Google if MS sacrifices billions of $ of shareholder value to a lost cause.