>The math is wrong in that Wikipedia article.
>
>The article says, "Contestants who switch have a 2/3 chance of winning the car, while contestants who stick have only a 1/3 chance"
>
>Here's where it's wrong. At the beginning, you have a 1/3 chance. Once the door is open, you have a 1/2 or 50% chance of being right no matter which decision you make. At that point, you are not choosing between three doors, you are choosing between two. The odds must be based on that.
No, you make the same mistake as I originally did
To make it clearer, say you have 1000 doors
You pick one. The odds that you have the door with the car = 1/1000
Then, he opens 998 other doors (with goats behind them)
The odds that the car is behind the door you did not pick = 1000/1000 - 1/1000 or 999/1000
So, you better switch - I would if I were you
Gregory