>>No, it's correct. Review the truth table at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Vos_Savant .
>>
>>If you're having trouble bending your mind around it, you're in good company.
>>
>>It's conditional probability - the end result is not an independent probability,
it depends on the results of prior choices.>
>Emphasis mine - it does not depend on
your prior choices. The probability changes because of the intervention of the host of the show - he knows what is behind all doors and he does not eliminate a door just at random. Instead, he specifically eliminates a door which he knows does not have the prize in order to be able to open it and show the goat. This changes the game and thus the odds as per the table you hyperlinked.
I find the Carlton explanation elegant:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Carlton
Regards. Al
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