>It is not the odds of being right that are so important.
>It is the consequences of being wrong.

Yes. That's compelling and it makes sense.
The nurse in Maine is raising the roof over being quarantined to her house and that's her right, but if I were the governor of Maine I'd quarantine her for 21 days.

Facts and common sense usually align but sometimes they don't.
When they don't, I usually go with common sense (unless it costs money.)
Shortly after 9/11 the Feds contracted with an Arab-owned security firm to guard several key ports in the southeastern US.
The facts showed that the firm was beyond reproach, had the lowest bid, etc., etc.
But common sense?
The public outcry was loud and clear and they replaced the firm.