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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/10/business/economy/economy-up-gop-wants-a-little-credit.htmlI'll use a sports analogy here, since the NFL playoff divisional round series happens this weekend...
Looks like this is an attempt to "spike the football", but there are multiple flags on the play :)
First, the employer mandate didn't kick in during 2014. The White House knew over a year ago it would be politically very rough, which is why they pushed it back a year. (Then again, given how badly the Ds lost in November, it probably would not have mattered). So, "Illegal procedure on the offense, five yard penalty".
Certainly when the employer mandate kicks in we'll eventually have a better handle on the impact. But that hasn't stopped the administration from using ACA to "prove" other stats (next point). But for now, I will absolutely say that MANY who had insurance before ACA are getting hit with a double whammy - increased premiums and narrowing networks.
Second, while you didn't mention it here, I believe you mentioned in a prior post about the 5% GDP growth. I forget if I replied, but that number has been debunked by many who caught the Commerce Dept/BEA red-handed in pulling ACA payments out of Q1 (which was a bad quarter anyway) and placing them later in the year to overstate personal consumption. Spending on actual durable/personal goods (not premiums) did not rise in Q3, which WOULD have been a good indicator of a growing and robust economy.
This one has been so thoroughly unmasked that the mainstream media rather quickly dropped much of their focus on the faulty 5% statistic. As someone who looks at numbers for a living, one of my growing concerns over ACA has been the ability of the government to use it as a source of diverting statistics - in other words, the more factors you have, the more shell games you can play. Some economists in the US accuse the Chinese govt of manipulating currency (and there's truth to that) - well, you're seeing some of the same tactics here from the current administration. So, "personal foul, attempt to deceive the American public, fifteen yard penalty".
Third, while I'm not a McConnell fan, he's not 100% wrong when he states that some of the improved economic environment is due to the Rs. Sequestration (which the White House tried to politicize) did account for a modest budget deficit reduction. Additionally, the Rs opposition to extending unemployment benefits did have a minor impact on some of the labor numbers. Still, McConnell did make other some boasting claims that are difficult to prove, so I'll say there are "offsetting penalties" on both sides on this one. :)
And fourth, on the job growth - it is certainly not BAD, but it's not what anyone should say is good news. Labor participation rate continues to drop (a new 38 year low, and it's not because of the baby boomers allegedly retiring) and Civilian Employment to Population Ratio is still under 60%. It's a bit of an oversimplification to say that the unemployment rate is dropping for all the wrong reasons - but what can be said is that the current direction of numbers don't fit the profile for the kind of football spiking that I've seen in the media that we have an economy getting stronger. You have too many people dropping out of the labor market altogether and it's not the 55+ crowd - that's why it takes more than a TV talking head to try to cover this in a 60 second news segment.
For every small piece of growth in one area, you have a small shot to the gut in another area (like wages dropping in December and premiums ticking up). So the official call on the field is "False start on the offense, five yard penalty"
So - after further review, touchdown over-turned. As Bill Parcells (the "Tuna") used to say, "Sorry, Charlie" :)
I am not going to say, "the economy stinks". Overall some things are comparatively a little better than 12 months ago - and some have stayed the same or have gotten worse. I don't pin all of that on the president, though I do blame the White House for painting a rosier picture than they ought to be. And the recent rumblings from the White House about a new gas tax and free education are not the way to go.
