>>>. E.g. check out Harvard: their "low" 15.4% on their endowment fund
>A great example of the thinking that has decimated many public and private pension plans.
>They use the results of a couple of boom years and forecast them into the future, neglecting to note that for several prior years there might have been negative returns.
>The probably that the returns of the past couple of years will be repeated over any meaningful period are slim.

FWIW, I remember hearing that even in the worst of the downturn, Yale was earning 20+% on its endowment. Some very smart investors who knew what they were doing.

Tamar